US Education: Costs Skyrocketing, Some States Falling Behind

The cost of education in the United States has dramatically increased against general inflation rates during the period 2000-2014. The consumer price index for education services increased 120 percent while overall inflation rose about 40 percent. Changes in recent months have only reinforced this trend. The consumer price index for education for the January-July period increased from 3.6 in 2014 to 3.8 percent in 2015, whereas the index for all consumer items was steady at -0.2 percent for the same period in 2014 and 2015. Turning to total expenditures, US federal government expenditures on education are about 5.2 percent of GDP, which is on par with other OECD economies and slightly higher than the world average. That said, the governments of several emerging countries, such as Bolivia, Brazil, and Ghana, outspend the OECD average.

FSU Countries: Military Strength Magnifies Value of NATO

The Global Firepower database published earlier this year provides an interesting perspective on the relative military strength of the former-Soviet Union (FSU) member states bordering Russia as compared to Russia. The contrast is so sharp that any of the FSU countries would almost certainly be unable to defend themselves from Russian military advancement without the direct involvement of NATO or other allied forces. 

The Baltic States, Georgia, and Ukraine combined spend fifteen times less on defense than does Russia. While military expenditures offer only a simplistic cross-country comparison - obscuring differences such as procurement systems and how related industries are supported by each government - the data in this case does show a correlation with smaller armed forces and limited resources. For example, the active military manpower of the Baltic States - comprised of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - is 25 times less than Russia's, and the States have no tanks (vs 15,400 in Russia), no fighter jets or other interceptors, and only small coastal Naval defense crafts.

Nigeria: Armed Conflicts, Military Spending, and the Economic Context

During the mid-to-late 2000s, Nigeria struggled to reign in the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, better known simply as MEND. MEND is a militant group based in the southwest of Nigeria in the Niger Delta, Nigeria's primary onshore oil production region. The group sought increased economic benefits for residents of the Niger Delta from the country's oil production and reparations for destruction of the environment by foreign oil companies. The group's guerrilla warfare tactics and deadly bombings were only part of the reason it was so potent; the group also caused severe economic losses by disrupting or shutting in oil and gas production infrastructure and kidnapping foreign oil workers.

A second violent group was developing its identity and reach during this same period: Boko Haram. Much of the world learned of the Boko Haram terrorist group after it kidnapped 276 school girls from their dormitory in the Nigerian town of Chibok in April 2014, but for years it has grown in size and capability. Formally established in the early 2000s, this Islamic extremist group gained new momentum and potency in the period 2009-2010 when it started an armed rebellion against the government of Nigeria.

Emerging Market and Commodity Currencies

The US dollar strengthened recently to the highest level in the past 10 years against a broad range of currencies. Falling commodity prices force "emerging" and "commodity-dependent" countries to weaken their currencies to maintain competitiveness. However, trying to improve export competitiveness through currency devaluation can induce a sharp rise in inflation rates. Enforced tightening of monetary policy also reduces economic growth because high interest rates stifle new business activity. According to the latest IMF estimates, countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Venezuela are experiencing simultaneous declines in GDP and rapdily rising inflation, the so called "stagflation" phenomenon.

China Emerging Cities, 2015

Where will business opportunities in urban China arise as a result of rapid increases in populations, incomes, infrastructure and economic activity? Five years ago, The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) looked to answer that question. The EIU devised an emerging city rankings index and published a report on the subject, CHAMPS: China’s fastest growing cities, which highlighted the rise of inland Chinese cities. It identified 2007 as a pivotal year for the economy, when inland China started to grow at a faster rate than the more developed coastal region. The aforementioned CHAMPS came not from the east, but from north-eastern, central and western parts of the country: Chongqing, Hefei, Anshan, Maanshan, Pingdingshan and Shenyang.

Sovereign Defaults, 1975-2014

A sovereign default is the failure or refusal of the government of a sovereign state to pay back its debt in full. Cessation of due payments (also euphemistically termed receivables) may either be accompanied by formal declaration (repudiation) of a government not to pay (or only partially pay) its debts, or it may be unannounced. Defaults have typically involved low-income and emerging-market economies, although recent cases include advanced-economy sovereigns. Until recently, there have been few efforts to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. This reflects a number of factors. An important reason is that there is no single internationally recognized definition of what constitutes a sovereign default. As a result, standards used by government borrowers and their creditors to report defaults, if they report at all, differ, and information on the various types of defaulted debt must be mined from different sources.

The 2015 Global Peace Index

The Global Peace Index is a composite index comprised of 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators that gauge the level of peace in 162 countries. These indicators can be grouped into three broad themes: the level of safety and security in a society, the number of international and domestic conflicts and the degree of militarisation. The only statistical measure of its kind, the Global Peace Index allows us to understand what makes societies peaceful and what we need to do in order to mitigate violence in the future. The 2015 Global Peace Index shows that the world is becoming increasingly divided with some countries enjoying unprecedented levels of peace and prosperity while others spiral further into violence and conflict.