Is Grexit really possible? Poll data and greek elections forecast

On Sunday, January 25th, the parliamentary elections are taking place in Greece. Today the Greek political arena consists mainly of all shades of red and brown. Some recent polls show, that the left-radical party SYRIZA may get the majority (151) of seats in parliament as a result of upcoming elections. However, every poll has a margin of error, and some individual poll results can significantly differ from other observations. To make more reasonable estimates, it is better to use average data from all the surveys conducted from January 1st by different polling firms that are collected on this Wiki page. According to the forecast, most likely SYRIZA will get 146 seats in the parliament, which would not give it an absolute majority, but will give an opportunity to get a majority in coalition with some smaller parties.

Such an outcome worries observers, who fear a sharp reversal of Greek policy towards rejection of the Euro currency and exit from the European Union (so-called Grexit), despite the fact that SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras recently stated that he has no such plans.

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