Knoema’s Predictions for the Final Four and 2017 NCAA Championship

The 2017 NCAA Tournament has come to the Final Four: South Carolina vs Gonzaga and Oregon vs North Carolina. To predict which teams will win the Final Four match ups and the 2017 NCAA Championship, we once again turned to the data. Knoema's prediction: North Carolina wins the NCAA championship after defeating Oregon in the Final Four and South Carolina in the championship game.

We base our predictions on the Championship Tournament Statistics from the NCAA. We developed an indicator of a team’s overall performance based on its average rank on 16 metrics, including scoring and rebounding margins, 3-point and field goal percentages, blocked shots, and assist/turnover ratio. Our indicator shows promise, predicting roughly 45 percent of the wins in the last nine NCAA championships.
  • During this year’s NCAA Tournament, North Carolina bettered Oregon on 12 of the 16 indicators, with the best results in scoring and rebounding margins. South Carolina lacks a similar lead over Gonzaga: South Carolina is better on turnover margin, while Gonzaga outperforms on scoring defense.
  • The majority of basketball commentators seem to agree North Carolina will beat Oregon, but predictions on the match up between Gonzaga and South Carolina vary.
  • Our prediction coincides with the forecast given by Bill Reiter, the national columnist for BBS Sports.
Don’t trust us or the experts. Dive in to the stats yourself, using the visualizations below to compare opponents on each of the 16 metrics. For more detailed historical statistics on past NCAA championships, visit this page.

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